Timing Matters.

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Subprime Auto Loan Crisis Chronometer

Crisis /krīsis/: A turning point that results in a battle over loss allocation.

Will there be a crisis? Are we near one?

Practices and factors similar to those contributing to the subprime mortgage meltdown are now impacting subprime auto lending and related ABS. The gauges reflect our take on how they are impacting risks for lenders and investors.

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The Subprime Auto Loan Crisis Chronometer shows the risk of battles over loss allocation.
Nov 2017
Lending Practices and Factors i
Subprime and deep subprime lending and securitization have risen sharply; delinquencies are on the rise, but not yet above peak levels. Risky practices exposing specific lenders and their investors to losses; other lenders will be similarly exposed if they chase market share.
ABS Practices and Factors i
Credit enhancements such as excess spread, overcollateralization and subordination continue to create a buffer from riskiest lending practices. Investors have not yet felt the sting of riskiest practices.
Auto Market Risks i
New vehicle prices are at all-time highs, but sales incentives and high supply of off-lease vehicles are depressing used vehicle prices, accelerating depreciation and driving up negative equity on trade-ins. Advances in technology will likely accelerate depreciation further.

Timing Matters.

Stay Ahead with Credit Chronometer.

Featured Post

As we said in our last post regarding vulnerability in credit enhancements and litigation risk, subprime auto ABS investors have historically slept easy in light of ample credit enhancements that have provided a protective cushion from losses. Based on the reactions, it seems some have been stirred from their slumber. The question now is what’s next?  Will market participants, after kicking the tires, find reason for alarm or will they hit the “snooze” button and go…

Latest Posts

Historically, investors in subprime auto asset-backed securities (ABS) have been able to sleep well at night. They have rested easy in part because credit enhancements in securitizations have protected them from losses.  Today, due in large part to the safety expected from credit enhancements, rumblings about the parallels between subprime auto lending and pre-financial crisis subprime mortgage lending – and the cataclysmic end those parallels could portend – have barely disturbed the subprime auto ABS market.

Overcollateralization (O/C) rates are often touted as particularly protective for subprime auto ABS.  It’s true, of course: As investors have rightfully demanded greater O/C rates on riskier pools,…

The massive data breach at Equifax has quickly spurred a number of lawsuits on behalf of consumers. That was to be expected. Far more surprising is the fact that financial institutions have started to pile on, filing their own suits against the credit reporting agency. It’s a bold strategy, and one that carries considerable risk. Any financial institution that is claiming victim status in this disaster that has personally affected half the U.S. population, and that is competing with individual consumers for money damages, could see its efforts backfire. In fact, it is easy to imagine the financial institutions’ lawsuits drawing such unflattering attention to their dealings with credit reporting agencies that they redirect the public ire,…

Originations and Issuances, by the Numbers

New mortgage originations reached $421 billion in Q2 2017, down from $427 billion in Q2 2016 (a 1.41% decrease). Housing debt reached $9.14 trillion in Q2 2017, up from $8.84 trillion in Q2 2016 (a 3.82% increase). Housing debt, at 68% of the $12.8 trillion in national household debt, continues to be far and away the leading form of consumer debt in the United States. Even so, quarterly originations are less than half than they were at their peak of $869 billion in Q3 2005,…

ABS Issuances, by the Numbers

Nine ABS deals totaling $3 billion closed in Q2 2017, a 76% increase from Q2 2016. Q2 ABS issuances included approximately $2 billion in consumer (up 28% versus Q1 2017) and approximately $1 billion in student (down 5% versus Q1 2017). All deals were rated. Total ABS issuance is expected to be over $11 billion in 2017.

Performance and Practices

Performance continued to weaken as delinquencies and charge-offs increased in Q2 for personal, student, and subprime auto loans. Prime credit card portfolios are showing multi-decade delinquency rate lows….

Originations and Issuances, by the Numbers

Student loan debt rose to $1.34 trillion in Q2 2017, up from $1.31 trillion at the end of 2016, and now accounts for 10.4% of the $12.8 trillion in total household debt.

In Q2 2017, $3.3 billion in student loan asset-backed securities (SLABS) were issued, down 34% versus year ago. Of the total first half 2017 SLABS issuance of $7.9 billion, student loan refinance (refi) ABS issuances were $2.3 billion, a 30% increase versus year ago. Traditional private SLABS issuances accounted for $0.8 billion, a 54% decrease versus year ago….

Originations and Issuances, by the Numbers

$3.7 billion has been advanced to homeowners under residential Property Assessed Clean Energy (R-PACE). Additionally, nearly $500 million has been advanced for commercial PACE (C-PACE) projects. Although R-PACE currently accounts for just .03% of the $12.8 trillion in household debt, it is one of the fastest growing sources of consumer credit and expected to double within the next year.

Through May 2017, the cumulative issuance of R-PACE loan securitizations between Renovate America, Ygrene, and Renew Financial reached $3.4 billion, up from $2.7 billion through December 2016 and $1.03 billion through December 2015….