Timing Matters.

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Subprime Auto Loan Crisis Chronometer

Crisis /krīsis/: A turning point that results in a battle over loss allocation.

Will there be a crisis? Are we near one?

Practices and factors similar to those contributing to the subprime mortgage meltdown are now impacting subprime auto lending and related ABS. The gauges reflect our take on how they are impacting risks for lenders and investors.

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The Subprime Auto Loan Crisis Chronometer shows the risk of battles over loss allocation.
Oct 2018
Lending Practices and Factors i
Subprime originations have trended down but securitization volume continues to increase. Subprime delinquencies in the secondary market are on the rise and have surpassed peak levels. Risky practices are exposing specific lenders and their investors to losses, as evidenced by the closure of a number of smaller subprime auto lenders earlier this year.
ABS Practices and Factors i
Credit enhancements such as excess spread, overcollateralization and subordination have increased in new deals and continue to create a buffer from riskiest lending practices. Investors have not yet felt the sting of riskiest practices.
Auto Market Risks i
New and used vehicle prices are at all-time highs, but sales incentives and high supply of off-lease vehicles are accelerating depreciation and driving up negative equity on trade-ins. Advances in technology will likely accelerate depreciation further.

Timing Matters.

Stay Ahead with Credit Chronometer.

Featured Post

It’s been said that a war doesn’t determine who is right, but rather, who is left. Although there’s been much talk of an epic battle between states and the federal government that will determine the scope of federal preemption in the student loan space, it’s not going to be much of a fight if only one side shows up.  If current trends hold, it looks like states will be left to dominate the legal landscape of…

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Historically, investors in subprime auto asset-backed securities (ABS) have been able to sleep well at night. They have rested easy in part because credit enhancements in securitizations have protected them from losses.  Today, due in large part to the safety expected from credit enhancements, rumblings about the parallels between subprime auto lending and pre-financial crisis subprime mortgage lending – and the cataclysmic end those parallels could portend – have barely disturbed the subprime auto ABS market.

Overcollateralization (O/C) rates are often touted as particularly protective for subprime auto ABS.  It’s true, of course: As investors have rightfully demanded greater O/C rates on riskier pools,…

It’s been said that a war doesn’t determine who is right, but rather, who is left.

Although there’s been much talk of an epic battle between states and the federal government that will determine the scope of federal preemption in the student loan space, it’s not going to be much of a fight if only one side shows up.  If current trends hold, it looks like states will be left to dominate the legal landscape of consumer protection.

In the wake of statements by the resigning student loan ombudsman at the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection that current political leadership has repeatedly undermined the Bureau’s efforts to protect consumers,…

It’s back to school time, and there’s so much noise about a student loan crisis that there’s a need to corral all the noisemakers and to gain an understanding of what’s actually going on. Sister Mary Elephant had the right idea when she scolded her classroom to be quiet some 40 years ago.

It does sound pretty bad. Student debt surpassed $1.5 trillion earlier this year, and it’s estimated that nearly 40 percent of borrowers will default on their student loans by 2023. But talks of a collapse are not marrying up with performance and other data….

There’s a caution flag out for subprime auto loan securitizations.

The Class C tranche of Honor Finance’s HATS 2016-1 – the deal that jump-started the debate as to how low deep subprime issuances could go before subprime auto ABS’s reputation for safety would be blemished – has been downgraded by S&P and KBRA. And now, what investors looked for yesterday is likely different than what investors will look for today. Two areas to watch: the strength of management and the level of credit enhancements. Rating agencies are sensitive to both,…

Originations and Issuances, by the Numbers

To date since the inception of Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) financing, $5.17 billion has been advanced to homeowners under residential PACE (R-PACE) programs, and an additional $672 million has been advanced for commercial PACE (C-PACE) projects. In 2017, R-PACE originations totaled $1.6 billion, down 6% compared with 2016. In 2018 so far, R-PACE originations have reached $372 million. C-PACE originations, on the other hand, are on the rise, totaling $251.4 million in 2017, which is almost double 2016’s volume. So far in 2018, C-PACE originations have reached $84.8 million….

Originations and Issuances, by the Numbers

New mortgage originations reached $428 billion in Q1 2018, down from $491 billion in Q1 2017 (a 12.9% decrease), according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. However, housing debt climbed to $8.94 trillion in Q1 2018, up from $8.63 trillion versus a year ago (an increase of 3.6%). Housing debt remains the leading source of consumer debt in the United States at 68% of the $13.21 trillion in national household debt. As such, it can be a bellwether for consumers’ financial health and the direction of the economy….