Student Loan Risk Assessment

How are the changing economic, political and consumer environments affecting student loan asset backed securities?

Evolving sentiment toward the rising cost of higher education and growing student loan debt balance is resulting in new market opportunities and challenges. The charts provide instruction on how industry practices and other factors are impacting risks for lenders and investors.

Risk Level

As of Sept 2018

HIGH MED LOW 2012201320142015201620172018
The Student Loan Risk Assessment shows the risk of battles over loss allocation.

LOW RISK

HIGH RISK

Lending Practices and Factorsi

Private lending and refi’s have benefited from stringent underwriting, but competition could lead to looser underwriting; deferments and forbearances are skewing delinquency rates; latent risks exist, such as loans for unaccredited programs and for-profit schools.

LOW RISK

HIGH RISK

ABS Practices and Factorsi

Private and Refi deals continue to benefit from pools of higher quality loans; FFELP deals should continue to benefit from the government guarantee.

LOW RISK

HIGH RISK

Underlying Market Risksi

Education costs, the average student loan debt burden and the aggregate student loan balance all continue to climb, spurring debt-relief programs, proposed legislation and bankruptcy reform, and a growing body of borrower-friendly decisions.

current Status

In a recent American Banker article, “Crisis in Student Loan Servicing is Building,” Joseph Cioffi discusses how actions against the largest student loan servicer, Navient, may expose improper practices in student loan servicing that are contributing to the student loan debt crisis. As Joseph notes, in a similar way, actions against subprime mortgage servicers exposed issues that contributed to the subprime mortgage fallout. Joseph notes the total impact of servicing issues is unknown, and it may in fact be too late for servicers to avoid litigation, but there is always room for improvements in servicing practices which, in turn, could prevent deepening of the nation’s student loan debt problem. To read the full article, click here.