Subprime Auto Loan Crisis Chronometer

Crisis /krīsis/: A turning point that results in a battle over loss allocation.

Will there be a crisis? Are we near one?

Practices and factors similar to those contributing to the subprime mortgage meltdown are now impacting subprime auto lending and related ABS. The gauges reflect our take on how they are impacting risks for lenders and investors.

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The Subprime Auto Loan Crisis Chronometer shows the risk of battles over loss allocation.
Jul 2018
Lending Practices and Factors i
Subprime originations have trended down but securitization volume continues to increase. Subprime delinquencies in the secondary market are on the rise and have surpassed peak levels. Risky practices are exposing specific lenders and their investors to losses, as evidenced by the closure of a number of smaller subprime auto lenders earlier this year.
ABS Practices and Factors i
Credit enhancements such as excess spread, overcollateralization and subordination have increased in new deals and continue to create a buffer from riskiest lending practices. Investors have not yet felt the sting of riskiest practices.
Auto Market Risks i
New and used vehicle prices are at all-time highs, but sales incentives and high supply of off-lease vehicles are accelerating depreciation and driving up negative equity on trade-ins. Advances in technology will likely accelerate depreciation further.

Joseph Cioffi recently sat down with William Hoffman, Associate Editor of Auto Finance News, for an episode of “The Roadmap,” a podcast from the Center for Auto Finance Excellence, a site dedicated to providing best practices for auto finance industry executives and investors. Joseph and William discussed trends apparent in recent subprime auto loan securitizations, and the outlook for the market going forward, including a close look at the interrelationships between credit enhancements, credit quality and credit ratings.

The discussion builds on Joseph’s thoughts first shared on a post on Credit Chronometer. Following the warnings in the post, several new issuances have been marked by higher credit enhancements, but also lower credit quality.

Listen to the full podcast here.