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Subprime Auto Loan Crisis Chronometer

Crisis /krīsis/: A turning point that results in a battle over loss allocation.

Will there be a crisis? Are we near one?

Practices and factors similar to those contributing to the subprime mortgage meltdown are now impacting subprime auto lending and related ABS. The gauges reflect our take on how they are impacting risks for lenders and investors.

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The Subprime Auto Loan Crisis Chronometer shows the risk of battles over loss allocation.
Dec 2017
Lending Practices and Factors i
Subprime and deep subprime lending and securitization have risen sharply; delinquencies are on the rise, but not yet above peak levels. Risky practices exposing specific lenders and their investors to losses; other lenders will be similarly exposed if they chase market share.
ABS Practices and Factors i
Credit enhancements such as excess spread, overcollateralization and subordination continue to create a buffer from riskiest lending practices. Investors have not yet felt the sting of riskiest practices.
Auto Market Risks i
New vehicle prices are at all-time highs, but sales incentives and high supply of off-lease vehicles are depressing used vehicle prices, accelerating depreciation and driving up negative equity on trade-ins. Advances in technology will likely accelerate depreciation further.

Timing Matters.

Stay Ahead with Credit Chronometer.

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Joseph Cioffi contributes his insights to this American Banker article that provides perspectives from industry insiders regarding the trends affecting auto loan performance, including longer maturities on used auto loans. “Borrowers can get underwater very easily on a used car with a 7-year loan,” Joseph said. Click here to view the full article.

This Structured Credit Investor article highlights Joseph Cioffi’s impressions of the recent CFPB v. Navient case and how the spotlight on Navient may reveal systemic issues in student loan servicing, which could result in further litigation. As Joseph points out, “there is the issue down the line that we could see more lawsuits like the Navient one come to light and particularly servicers could see more lawsuits against them.” Click here to view the full article.

Joseph Cioffi offers ValueWalk an in-depth look into the lawsuit against Navient, the largest student loan servicer. Joseph shares his thoughts on the similarities with the subprime mortgage crisis, growing sentiment in favor of student loan borrowers and the effect of the new presidential administration on the industry. Joseph states, “Prior to 2007, few, if any, knew how overburdened, outmanned and poorly equipped subprime mortgage servicers were to deal with widespread defaults…” Click here to view the full article.

In this ValueWalk article, Joseph Cioffi offers insight into concerns surrounding the Property Assessed Clean Energy program (PACE), including the adequacy of disclosures made at the time a PACE-funded project is sold to a homeowner as a means of financing energy efficient home improvements through a tax assessment on the property. Click here to view the full article.

This Banking Exchange article, prompted by the DOJ’s recent lawsuit against Barclays, discusses the longer statute of limitations available to the government, relative to private plaintiffs, to sue participants in the subprime mortgage securitization process. As Joseph states, for the immediate future “the 10-year statute of limitations remains an arrow in the government’s quiver.” Click here to view the full article.